Dr Lawrence Alexandre, of whom we have spoken in two previous posts (“The Future : The War of Intelligences”, December 19, 2017, and “A Wonderful World – or Dystopia – I Will Not See”, October 10, 2018) has a weekly page for his reflections on Artificial Intelligence, “Tomorrow will make your head spin”, in L’Express, a widely read and respected review. Unless you read French you can’t keep up with what he is describing as a new world, so I thought to give you a thumbnail sample of some of the themes he has covered in his January 2018 articles. Food for thought – and perhaps triggers for your own research on the subject, in English language books and magazines.
“God” will be more and more absent as we enter a world where He will be replaced by what Yuri Harari has called “Homo Deus”, as our destiny becomes more and more dependent on Artificial Intelligence, and where robots will be more present and pertinent than religions.
- January 10, 2O18 : The “good old days” weren’t. The domestic availability of water, heat and light has made giant advances in the last two centuries. The author offers details in the progress of the domestication of these three essentials we now take for granted. The light from a candle, for instance, is roughly 1% of that provided by a 100-watt lamp (13 lumens compared with 1200 !), and is much less expensive than what candles used to cost. The cost, power and size of integrated circuits, essential to A.I. , have evolved to our advantage, according to the law of Gordon Moore, their power doubling, at constant cost, every one to two years.
- January 17 : Bitcoins, the virtual crypto-currency created in 2008 and much in the news because of the recent explosion of their marketing value, are, according to Lawrence Alexandre, “indispensable for financing technological revolutions”. Railways in the 19th century ruined many investors but created a rail network on every continent. In the year 2000, the bursting of the Internet bubble likewise ruined many investors (including the creator of this Blog !) but “from it emerged a cyber world”. Will bitcoin-block chains resemble the 1637 Dutch folly of trading with tulips as currency ? The author thinks not, but admits that Warren Buffet says bitcoins “will end badly”. He adds, however, that the JP Morgan bank regrets calling them a “swindle”.
- January 24 : Europe, and France in particular, are shooting themselves in the foot in not promoting and financing the development of giant data-bases. We are thus “permitting Chinese and American businesses to prosper without European competition”. We are becoming their “vassals”.
- January 31 : Alexandre quotes some surprising statistics on the recent lowering of the I.Q. of children in France ( – 4 points) and its increase in Singapore ( + 10 points). The cause ? Intelligent, educated Frenchwomen are choosing to have fewer children, while the birth of more children of less gifted mothers is encouraged by State financing. “Social Security should reimburse 100% of the cost of freezing the ovules of women scientists to allow them to have children (“bébés tardifs” !) after their Ph.D.” ! Doctor Alexandre reminds us that “the DNA of the mother is significantly more important than that of the father in determining the I.Q. of children” . . .
RIDENDA RELIGIO
Niels Nicolaisen said:
Very interesting! But Ai has nothing to do with inteligence. I found a few words about it:
Computers today will never lead to a sentient, self-aware machine.
Moore’s “law” is a misnomer, as it’s simply an “observation that we double the number of transistors every once in a while,” but that trend is likely to slow down in the near future.
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frankomeara said:
Whom are you quoting ?
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Niels Nicolaisen said:
Also,
AI has taken us to the verge of an Orwellian dilemma, because the spectacular advantages offered by computers weigh so heavily and create such enormous optimism, it’s easy to overlook one flaw: AI sn’t based on the truth. Computers process information at lightning speed and their abilities improve as the algorithms that are programmed into them become more sophisticated. Yet, without question, life isn’t algorithmic, which means that no computer can ever truly be alive. Computers cannot and will never have minds.
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frankomeara said:
Idem : whom are you quoting ?
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Niels Nicolaisen said:
The first two quotes I can’t find again. I meant to say that computers are machines. There is no Intelligence in a computer, the expression Ai is wrong. Worked with computers since 1964.
The second quote was from:
“Artificial Intelligence Will Never Rival the Deep Complexity of the Human Mind”
By Deepak Chopra
Yes, Ai would be a problem if it existed but it does not and most likely never will. Computing power is not the same as intelligence.
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frankomeara said:
Thank you, Niels. I have a feeling however that we will soon discover that AI is not just a question of semantics.
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Niels said:
The Myth Of AI
A Conversation With Jaron Lanier [11.14.14]
( I found this and it is very close to what I think, he also brings in the idea of religion!)
“But it’s a call for increased human agency, so in that sense maybe it’s functional, but I want to go little deeper in it by proposing that the biggest threat of AI is probably the one that’s due to AI not actually existing, to the idea being a fraud, or at least such a poorly constructed idea that it’s phony. In other words, what I’m proposing is that if AI was a real thing, then it probably would be less of a threat to us than it is as a fake thing.
What do I mean by AI being a fake thing? That it adds a layer of religious thinking to what otherwise should be a technical field. Now, if we talk about the particular technical challenges that AI researchers might be interested in, we end up with something that sounds a little duller and makes a lot more sense.
For instance, we can talk about pattern classification. Can you get programs that recognize faces, that sort of thing? And that’s a field where I’ve been active. I was the chief scientist of the company Google bought that got them into that particular game some time ago. And I love that stuff. It’s a wonderful field, and it’s been wonderfully useful.
But when you add to it this religious narrative that’s a version of the Frankenstein myth, where you say well, but these things are all leading to a creation of life, and this life will be superior to us and will be dangerous … when you do all of that, you create a series of negative consequences that undermine engineering practice, and also undermine scientific method, and also undermine the economy.•”
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frankomeara said:
Niels, you will be interested to read the following excerpts from today’s article by Dr Alexandre in L’Express (April 18) :
1. “The conclusion of current reflections is that the massive destruction of jobs is not certain, but that the risk of an increase in inequalities is strong and that the measures to oppose it are complex to implement if AI progresses rapidly.”
2. “The majority of economists consider that the “singularity” – THE MOMENT WHEN MACHINES OVERTAKE HUMAN BRAINS IN EVERY DOMAIN – is a distant perspective, but that current AI – devoid of artificial consciousness (!) – will upset economic equilibriums.”
3. “Getting beyond “café de commerce” discussions (pub-talk) that we all enjoy will be difficult, but intellectual laziness (!) cannot prepare us for such a complex shock.”
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Niels said:
I will read it. I know things will be difficult for many in the future and it can worry me.
I will still say that true artificial intelligence does not exist and will probably not exist for many years to come. Perhaps true intelligence might be usfull, we could either switch it off or ignore it. It is humans that frighten me!
I read once one of the old science fiction stories of where a computer was connected to the entire Galaxy. The first question ithat was asked was, did God exist? The answer was. Yes! Now.
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frankomeara said:
I am not at all sure that “Artificial Intelligence adds a layer of religious thinking”. AI and even the creation of new life are no more religious than a hen laying an egg.
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Niels said:
The end of the story was that they could not switch it off.
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Niels said:
Yes I agree with all you sent. Sounds not good. Too many people in the world, It will be a big mess.
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